Friday, 19 September 2014 20:34
Pound terhapus keuntungan terhadap dolar AS pada hari Jumat, menarik diri dari tertinggi dua setengah minggu sebagai perhatian pasar bergeser jauh dari referendum Kamis kemerdekaan Skotlandia.
GBP / USD menarik diri dari 1,6525, pasangan tertinggi sejak 2 September, hingga memukul 1,6354 pada perdagangan sore Eropa, shedding 0,26%.
Kabel ini cenderung untuk mencari dukungan di 1,6244, Kamis rendah dan hambatan pada 1,6615, tingginya 2vSeptember.
Pound menguat sebelumnya, setelah pemilih Skotlandia menolak kemerdekaan, mencegah pecah dari Inggris dan ketidakpastian berkepanjangan.
Sebuah catatan pemilih disampaikan kemenangan yang jelas untuk kampanye yang pada hari Kamis, dengan 55% dari pemilih Skotlandia menolak kemerdekaan dan 45% dukungan itu.
Friday, 19 September 2014 16:27
The fact that "no" camp would claim victory in the Scottish referendum was known already by the time when 3/4 of votes in the 32 local authority areas were counted. But now with the total tally in, the result can be officially confirmed: Scotland will remain part of the UK.
According to the final numbers 55.3% of voters (2,001,926 people) said "no" to independence, while 44.7% (1,617,989 people ) opted for a secession from the UK. The turnout was very high at 84.6%, with 4,283,000 registered to vote.
The "no" camp triumphed in 28 local authority areas, while the "yes" camp only in 4 of them.
Friday, 19 September 2014 16:20
In the view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the current up move in the pair is viewed as corrective only.
“GBP/USD strength is showing no signs of abating and has eroded the accelerated downtrend at 1.6422”.
“The move up is extensive but is being classed as corrective – the charts are indicating that we will see failure circa 1.6565 and ahead of 1.6644/46 – the September high and the 200 month ma”.
“This together with the 200 day ma at 1.6690 to expected to cap the topside”.
“Support is found at 1.6345/ 1.6290 and 1.6160 ahead of the 1.6053 recent low”.
“Longer term we look for losses back to 1.6007/00 (200 week ma and 50% retracement of the move up from 2013) then 1.5721 the 61.8% retracement of the move from 2013”.
Friday, 19 September 2014 16:08
In the opinion of Jens Pedersen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, the recent poor data from the TLTRO potentially opens the door for further easing measures.
“Yesterday’s TLTRO uptake disappointed with euro-zone banks only taking EUR82.6bn”.
“Today’s LTRO repayment is crucial in determining excess liquidity when it settles next week, where a large repayment will result in less liquidity being injected from the first TLTRO”.
“How does this fit with ECB efforts of expanding its balance sheet? At the margin this suggests that the TLTRO will be less successful in boosting the balance sheet and the ECB will thus have to look at other sources”.
“First in line are the announced ABS and covered bond purchase programmes”.
“However, our covered bond analysts believe it will be difficult to achieve significant size in these programmes near term, and this leaves QE in government bonds more likely”.
Friday, 19 September 2014 16:01
USD/CHF rebounded from Asian low at 0.9333, and is showing some attempts to recover part of the recent losses reaching 0.9358 area in Europe.
Few reasons to buy Swissy
The support area around 0.9330/40 has probably works as a bottom for the recent slide of the pair on the unchanged policy from the SNB. Although the market was surprised by the decision of the monetary authorities, still there are very few reasons for the Swissy to strengthen in current environment. Lack of economic releases may leave the pair range-bound on Friday, however, the first strong US report may trigger another attack on 0.94 area. It means current levels look quite attractive to enter the market with longs.
What are today’s key USD/CHF levels?
Today's central pivot point can be found at 0.9368 with support below at 0.9301, 0.9265 and 0.9198, with resistance above at 0.9404, 0.9471, and 0.9507. Hourly Moving Averages are bullish, with the 200SMA at 0.9354 and the daily 20EMA bullish at 0.9276. Hourly RSI is bullish at 47.
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